Wednesday, January 13, 2010

"China is a Bubble Waiting to Happen" Meme

I find it interesting when an idea spreads like wildfire across the media to become accepted theory, particularly when it is 180 degrees from the accepted ideas before it. I also know that the term for this is a "meme", but didn't know where it came from. Wikipedia gave me those details .
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(A meme (pronounced /ˈmiːm/, rhyming with "cream"[1]) is a postulated unit of cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena. The British scientist Richard Dawkins introduced the word "meme" in The Selfish Gene (1976) as a basis for discussion of evolutionary principles in explaining the spread of ideas and cultural phenomena. Examples of memes given in the book included melodies, catch-phrases, beliefs (notably religious beliefs), clothing fashion, and the technology of building arches)...
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Anyway the current meme is that China is a huge bubble and the next to burst. It has burst upon the scene so fast, and seems to be such wishful thinking on many people's parts - I tend not to trust it.
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Today, in the New York Times, Thomas Freidman, also discusses this idea. He is of the opinion that even if it is a bubble - it is less important than we think. Because as most bubbles are asset bubbles (house prices, stock prices, tulip prices (the original bubble)) - but China has spent a considerable portion of its inflow on infrastructure, education and the foundations for corporate growth. Even if the housing prices are a bubble, his theory goes, the rest of China will come through pretty damn well.
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And since T. Freidman is a smart guy (he wrote The World Is Flat) I tend to take his opinions seriously.