Thursday, August 09, 2018

What is Normal and What is Not Normal

In many ways Donald Trump is a typical Republican by the way he governs. So let's look at some of what is new and what is old. What is working and what is not working.

The economy is his big achievement. Most Democrats will say that he has imply benefited from Obama's economic recovery, and it is true that all the indicators point to the fact he seems to have maintained the trajectory. But our current economic situation is a pretty big achievement. This recovery is one of the longest lasting there has ever been.  And while I disagree with much of what he has done, his business friendly positioning has undoubtedly helped that along.

Tax rates. Donald Trump and the Republican Congress have passed a big ass tax cut. Some of the items, like the new business tax rate, I applaud. Other items, like the gigantic tax break to the wealthiest individuals, I abhor. But here, he has acted as a normal Republican.

Regarding environmental law, I have massive problems with what he has done. However, the majority of the changes would have been followed by any Republican - sure a few exceptions stand out, the rolling back of car mileage, the attack on California's right to regulate emissions and the reduction in National Monuments, but otherwise it is a traditional Republican line.



He is an atypical politician in other ways.

In the trade sphere, he is much more "nativeist" that any Republican and most Democrats. He cancelled the TPP, is trying to pull out of NAFTA and has started trade wars that are both ineffective and annoying to our friends. He disagrees with all economists and most politicians and is putting his economic achievements at risk for a very thin slice of voters. This is neither normal nor long term productive in my opinion. But he did say that is what he would do.

President Trump's foreign policy is not normal for any American, Republican or Democrat - since the time of Nazi pacifism before World War II (a fringe element even then, but the only parallel).

President Trump's foreign policy is disrupt everyone and kiss Israel's ass. Becoming a unreliable foreign power is horrible for America's long term goals. The entire world system is built on the foundations America laid down and kept the major powers out of war for nearly 75 years. These foundations have helped to raise billions out of poverty, lead to a world where stability is accepted as the new norm and facilitated global wealth growth unsurpassed. To piss it all away for shits and giggles is problem the most serious mistake I seem him making.

I cannot think of a nice way to say how subservient we have been to Israel, who has shown themselves to be a bad faith actor. The country has used our unquestioning support not only to ignore peace talks, but to in fact pass a new law that states only the Jewish people (as decided by Orthodox Rabbis in Israel) have the right to self-determination in Israel. The millions of non-Jews now have no legal right to have a say in their own future. It is a constitutional change backwards unmatched since South Africa's apartheid.

He has placated authoritarians world wide - except Iran (see below) and seems particular fond of Russian's Leader Putin. Like Trump is fond of Putin in the same way I am fond of Brad Pitt. (I wouldn't have any reporters in the room if I could spend 2 hours alone with Brad either.)

His rejection of American traditional pillars - at least in terms of our security and law enforcement - is unprecedented. He seems willing to trash the FBI, Department of Justice, CIA and NSA and promote conspiracy theories that will tear down these institutions long after he leaves the scene. That is bad for America.

Trump is unusual and different from all previous Presidents in two other ways, neither good.

First he is obsessed with his predecessor, President Obama. His unflagging desire to overturn everything Obama did, good bad and indifferent borders on the obsessive. This has caused him to pull out of the Paris Climate accords, the Iranian nuclear treaty, attack the children of immigrants and generally operate in bad faith. My worry is less than he did all this (as petty and mean-spirited as it is) but more that this will become our new norm. So much of our government is deadlocked that we have come to depend on Presidential directives and executive orders since Ronald Regan. To undo and redo them will confuse investors and antagonize  voters.

Second, as I stated before, he is the first President since the Civil War that doesn't claim to the President of all Americans. He calls out the news Media, Democrats, civil rights leaders, Muslims, Hispanic Americans, Black Americans and LGBT people as traitors or lessor citizens. This is new and horrible. I mean he has called CNN the enemy of the people. That is not right.

His twitter addition is not normal, but may be so in the future.