Today: Asia
1: North KoreaThe big news here is actually on our radar with North Korea. North Korea has developed nuclear weapons faster than almost all experts expected. In retrospect, it appears a collapse of the scientific work in Russia and Ukraine enabled a mass movement of experts to North Korea. These were rocket experts, which complimented the many weapons experts they already had.
So North Korea can pretty reliably lop a nuclear weapon to South Korea, Japan and American bases in Guam. The US mainland is in range, but probably not reliably.
The President's team has said, repeatedly, that this is not acceptable. But, there isn't a lot we can do about it, in reality. Any war will kill millions - metropolitan Seoul (pop- 25+ million) is in range of conventional weapons already. Any nuclear weapons used will raise the death toll massively. Kim won't give up the weapons - see how the other members of the "axis of evil" have fared. And the President's demand to tear up the Iran deal makes the North Koreans even less likely to deal with us.
The current best case is probably learning to live with North Korea as a nuclear power. That may lead to Japan and South Korea getting their own nuclear weapons, if don't trust our guarantees. And the President's comments about payments from them, along with his disdain of NATO makes that a real possibility.
North Korea will continue to try to pull South Korea into a better relationship and undermine our alliance. I am not sure that is a terrible thing.
2: India
India is in a state of flux right now. Their President was elected by a combination of Hindu nationalists, and non-nationalists hoping to fix the corruption in the economy and country. Supporting the nationalists has proven easier than fixing the corruption.
Normally, this would be pretty much business as usual. But China (see #3) is throwing it's weight around on the Indian border and India's neighbors, so trouble might rise between the two. There are tense face offs in Nepal and Bhutan on the Indo-Chinese border.
3: China
China has a dynamic and nationalist President in Xi Jinping. And the US administration is only sporadically interested in China. This has casued a significant rise in Chinese power, both hard and soft power.
A huge problem in the last few years has been the South China Sea and China's claims and bases there. This hasn't been a problem since Trump took over because we acquiesced to China's claims. We haven't legally acknowledged them, but we have completely stopped challenging them - giving them a defacto win on a very very public stage in Asia.
China's latest push for soft power is the creation of the "New Silk Road" a series of infrastructure projects throughout Asia that will raise their profile and soft power. I have marked just some areas with the blue pushpin symbols. The projects in the "stans" are pretty normal, but the projects in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Pakistan look a lot like an anti-India plan, which could cause trouble.
China has replaced the United States as the most dynamic power in Asia for about a decade. The Trump administration has decided to abdicate any leadership role in the region, except for the Seventh Fleet which is keeping sea lanes open - but even the fleet is currently very busy with North Korea.
Below is a more clear representation of China's New Silk Road plans and a link to it.
