So the state of Massachusetts has elected a Republican, Scott Brown, to replace Ted Kennedy. I think this surprises no one.
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Here is the way I see it. President Obama, in his own way, has somehow managed to piss of independents AND his own base -without picking up any other support.
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His supporters / enablers say that he has done some amazing things and point to the economic recovery / saving from a depression. Let's give him credit for that. But in most other areas, he seems adrift and wishy washy.
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Maybe staying out of the fray of Healthcare was a good idea to not have it fail - but it is going to fail now or be so watered down to be lousy. A little leadership and pushing would have helped legislation along (say like George W did to get the tax breaks that are really fueling the deficit). With 41 Republican Senate votes, Healthcare is dead unless you buckle in to Olympia Snow or you use reconciliation. And for some odd reason you won't do that (even though - again - that is how Bush passed the tax breaks, because THEY WERE IMPORTANT TO HIM).
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As for the base, following the footsteps in doubling down in Afghanistan - not closing Gitmo - supporting a surveillance state - these are going to piss off your liberal base. And, the way they were done, they won't impress independents. You seemed to be ashamed of them. Well the base is pissed and independents think your are hesitant.
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Plenty of time to recover, particularly if the economy improves, but it is a recovery back to where you were. I am not sure this white house sees that they have screwed the pooch. And, if you don't see that, you can't fix it. You have to mend fences with either the base or the independents - your attempts to spilt the difference have made you look like a tool of Rahm Emanuel.