Thursday, January 27, 2011

Definition of a "Unknown Unknown"

So when Donald Rumsfeld talked about Iraq he talked about things we know, things we don't know, and things we don't know we don't know.  Which is actually extremely apropos in Foreign Relations.
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Look at the Middle East now.  At the beginning of the year there were things we didn't know (and still don't) were, Will Iran Get a Bomb?  Will Isreal Attack Iran Before It Gets a Bomb?  Will Iraq now allign with Iran?  these were unknown, but we knew they were out there.
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But there were things we didn't know that we didn't know.  For example, we had no idea we didn't know was Will a lone demonstrator and Twitter cause enough turmoil in Tunisia to Bring Down the Government?  Will This New Street Power Bring Down Egypt, Jordon or Algeria?  What does an Egypt run by  The Muslim Brotherhood mean for peace in the region?  These are things that were also unknown, but we didn't even know they were out there.
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The world is a complex place.