Friday, January 18, 2013

Alone?

Are we alone in the universe?  I don't mean in the sense "are there other biological life forms?", which I am positive there are - but in the "is there anyone we can talk to?" sense.
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My guess is no, we won't find anyone to talk to.  I mean, there probably is / was someone, but I also don't think we will ever meet them.
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There are 3 problems in hoping to meet other smart(ish) species - let's take them in biggest to smallest.
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1. The Universe is hostile and big.  By that, I mean that there are a myriad of ways that the sky can break us.  Too many gamma rays, too much radiation from noves, too many comets, etc.  We are lucky to be stuck way out on the Milky Way's Rim, where the effects of random acts of star creation don't really effect us.  But most stars are in clusters closer to the center of the galaxy.  And there, a stray Nova or two could easily wipe out life, early in it's development.  So, if life - sentient life was going to evolve somewhere else, it would probably be another Rim area planet - which puts it too far for us to meet.
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2. Humanity is short lived.  I mean in the aspect of Universal time.  There is a fascinating walk in New York's Rose Planetarium, which takes you from the Big Bang to the the moon-shot.  It is about 1/4 of a mile, of which the last 1/4 inch is the history of mankind  - and only the last specks on the line indicate a time when man might venture out into space.  And that spec is effectively over now.  Having looked around the solar system and seen nothing to hold our attention, we spend more on TV shows about juiced up college students downing beer and vodka till they puke than we do on space exploration.  We have a short life expectancy (compared to the time it would take to travel to the stars) and an even shorter attention span.  Meantime there are a million things which have to be done to keep this planet viable.  In the 1950s and 60s - it was the prospect of nuclear war that might wipe us  out.  In the 1970s and 80s, it was the prospect of polluting ourselves to oblivion.  Now we are turning ourselves into the frog on the stove, with the water slowly heating up to boiling as we debate what to do about the bubbles.  Even if we avoid that, regular old wars are still being waged (or talked up).  It will be tough going to stay at this level of modernity for the next couple of centuries.
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3. What makes us think other sentient species are any better at the whole "exploration" thing than us?  Which multiples the problems of #2 across multiple species.
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I am not saying there aren't other people out there to talk to.  I am saying we just won't get the chance.
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I blame Einstein and that damn Speed Of Light limit.