Therefore, time for a little, What's Going On In the World with Scooter (day 2)....
Today: The Middle East
Here are main issue areas coming to a boil over the next few weeks / months.
1: Turkey
This is a tough one to fix. Turkey is one of our key allies in the region and has been for years. The President (Erdogan) has taken extra powers from the legislature and the judiciary and is becoming more autocratic. This, in itself, wouldn't be a problem for the Trump administration - but the Erodgan uses the United States as a straw man example of international pressure. This is a simmering problem between 2 strong men that might cause a big rift in our relationship.
It has already pushed Erdogan closer to Russia (including buying Russian weapons that will not integrate into NATO). Just as a backgrounder - yes, the United States still has nuclear weapons at bases in Turkey. What could go wrong?
2: Iran
President Trump is fixated on "pressuring" Iran, because President Obama passed (with Europe) a deal to limit their nuclear program. Trump's anti-Obama obsession tends to blind him to any positives that the last administration might have made. Misjudging Iran can have some serious problems. The President, and Israel, have repeatedly supporting pre-emtive attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. It is doubtful he would do that, but we definitely see things getting worse.
Right now - there are demonstrations against the government in Iran. Trump's tweets give the ruling powers a great publicity cover to crack down hard.
3: Israel and Palestine
The United States has officially given Israel cover to move against the Palestinians, with the declaration we will move our embassy to Jerusalem. Israel has taken the opportunity to pass some onerous laws, including a few that treat the "occupied territories" as part of Israel proper.
Without a fair host (the role the United States used to play), the peace talks, sputtering though they were, are all but over. It seems the two state talks are over, as both the hardliner Israel legislature and the lead Palestinian negotiator have declared they cannot move forward withe the 2 state solution.
Both side now speak of a 1 state solution, but what do to with a massive Arab Islamic population in a Jewish democracy will be a problem.
4: The Kurds
"Well, they're dead now."
The United States coalition depended on the Kurdish fighters to beat ISIS. Now that ISIS is pretty much pushed out of the Syria / Iraq region - we have forgotten about it. The Kurdish people, with what they assumed was tatic US support, have voted for an independent Kurdistan. That lead to a crushing of the Kurds by a combined Iranian / Iraqi force. Leading to the collapse our fighting partner and a coalition putting our great enemy (Iran) and our local ally (Iraq) together against our other partner. The silence on the part of the United States, and the antipathy the Kurdish people raise in Turkey will probably lead to less freedom for the Kurds - and perhaps a lot of death.
5: Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has a new leader that is fairly progressive. This is great news. He is also fairly ambitious geo-politically, which is less great news. He has expanded the war in Yemen (see #8) and started a blockade of Qatar (see #7). He is eager to see Saudi Arabia challenge Iran. If President Trump is able to cancel the Iranian nuclear treaty, expect Saudi Arabia to get its own nuclear weapon almost immediately (it can get one from Pakistan (#6) with very little effort).
6: Pakistan
President Trump has been very honest in regards to Pakistani involvement in supporting Afghan tribal forces. This is refreshing, but not particularly useful. We are withholding $ aid, but Pakistan can replace that with Chinese money easily enough. If Pakistan chokes the border with Afghanistan, the United States will be at a severe disadvantage in our on-going war in Afghanistan (see #9). Pakistan is a nuclear power and needlessly provoking them is usually counter-effective. But, to be honest, nothing is very effective with Pakistan, as we are allies with few goals in common.
7: Qatar
This is a stupid problem we have made worse. Qatar is where the US military is based in the region (after being pushed out of Saudi Arabia). Qatar has been a reasonably neutral player in the region, maintaining ties with most countries and supporting a free press with Al Jezera support. The Al Jezera support, in particular, annoys Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and its allies in the gulf declared a blockade of Qatar until they shut down Al Jezera, broke relations with Iran and basically genuflected to Saudi demands. Note: the Iranian issue is almost impossible, since they jointly control natural gas reserves. President Trump, naively, supported Saudi Arabia in this action, over the country where our military is based.
The blockade has proven completely ineffective and paired our ally Turkey (see #1) and our enemy Iran (see #2) together to support an independent Qatar. Furthermore, despite the President's open and loud approval of the Saudi's actions, the United States daily ignores the blockade because our military is based there.
This "problem" might slink into the night, which is make the Saudi's more invested in the next issue just to save face.
8: Yemen
There is a huge civil war in Yemen. Since this is the middle east, the major powers have chosen sides. On one side, Iran supports rebels. On a second side (there are always more than 2 sides inthe middle east) Saudi Arabia supports other rebels. The United States uses drone attacks against the Iranian supported rebels (without authorization of course). The rebels now have missiles and are lobbing them into Saudi Arabia. In all of this, the people of Yemen are starving and dying.
9: Afghanistan
Still at war with the United States. President Trump's "plan" is the same as Obama's. President Obama's "plan" was the same as the latter days of Bush. What is that saying about doing the same thing expecting a different outcome? 16 years and counting....