Saturday, October 13, 2018

The world you missed while watching the Trump Variety Hour

I will admit, the Trump Variety Hour has been hugely entertaining this week - what with Krazy Kanye and Triumphant Trump.

But, seeing as I just got back from Europe, I need to tell you there are other, very important stories out there. Yes, even more important that Mr. Kim Kardashian going rouge in a news conference and Apple store.

Let's start with the most important and move down. These were all discussed during my time by news organizations in Bosnia Herzegovina and Turkey....


On November 4th, lost in the news cycle of the midterm results, the US is imposing serious new sanctions on Iran and any company that does business with Iran. We will be shutting on access to payment systems to any company working with the regime.

We are doing this unilaterally, which pisses off our allies quite a bit. Iran has not violated the agreement which all parties made, Trump just doesn't like it because Israel doesn't like it and Obama did it. So he cancelled a treaty that brings Europe great security.

I said long ago, the problem with limiting access to our banks, if used to often, means that the world will find another system to clear funds. If this happens AND it works, then the US Dollar stops becoming the world's currency, our debt is going to choke us all. Well, it is happening now.

China is working to find a way to buy Iranian oil using secret clearing systems. Worse, the European Union is working to find a way to buy Iranian oil or do business with Iran that bypasses the dollar market. Sure, we get big companies that want to work in the US to leave (like TOTAL Oil from France) - but smaller EU companies that find a way to bypass the dollar will lead to other countries doing it also. Neither the Remembi nor the Euro is powerful enough, but bit-coin like electronic systems might be.
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Brexit seems to be falling part on the issue of the Northern Ireland border.

Whether you think Brexit is a great or stupid idea doesn't really matter. It is most probably happening. And it will most likely be the worst of all possible worlds. Britain will have to give up money and control over laws and migration to the EU to be allowed to exit the decision making process over those rules. What they get out of the deal is access to the common market (which is why they have to play by the rules, but not make them).

This is not horribly uncommon.  Norway and Switzerland have very similar agreements.

But the entire thing hinges on the border between Ireland (in the EU) and Northern Ireland (in Great Britain). The EU (and England) do not want a return to a hard border with guards and checkpoints. Entry into the EU basically help in stopping the Republican Irish attacks in both Northern Ireland and London. A hard border has every chance of starting that war again - in addition to spiking the economy.

BUT, the UK government is a minority government and the balance of power is held by 10 Northern Irish politicians that refuse to go along with this plan. Which they call a soft annexation of Northern Ireland.  And, truth be told, they are right.

It is a game of chicken, where the British Conservatives have given the driving wheel and the accelerator to a testosterone fueled 15 year old. (That is an analogy that makes the most sense if you've seen East of Eden).
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Bosnian had an election. The super-nationalists won. And I mean super-nationalists! Trump is a lightweight next to these guys. The Bosnian Serb President and the Sparsk Republic President both want the Serbs and the Serbian majority lands to leave and join Serbia.

That is what caused the last war that left 10% of the population dead.

Bosniak and Croat leadership is just as nationalistic. Except for the new Croat President. The nationalist party won the Croat vote, but the also elected a moderate Croat President. So, of course, the people are demonstrating against him.

The USA is oddly in this because they are still operating under the Dayton Accords. These were a short term based system of sharing power after the civil war that was suppose to expire after no more than 5 years as the Bosnian parties (Bosniak, Serb and Croat) agreed on a new constitution. That was 25 years ago.

Finally, something you might have heard a bit about. A journalist from Saudi Arabia, but critical of the regime seems to have been murdered inside the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul. He went to get the paperwork to marry his Turkish fiancée.

This is a big deal of Saudis throwing their weight around in a 3rd country - nominally a friendly country to both Saudi Arabia and the United States.

You might have heard about it because President Trump was asked about it (seems our spy agencies knew this murder might happen). President Trump said it was kind of important but he wasn't going to do much because Saudi Arabia is buying $110 Billion dollars of military hardware and complaining would just make them buy from China or Russia. That is pretty disgusting, but I really do appreciate the dead honest of it. There is a price we are willing to pay for international justice, and $110 Billion to too high. It is a fair comment. Heartless and blunt, but fair.

Now in reality (because the Trump Variety Hour isn't hemmed in by truth), the $110 Billion was really only $100 Billion. And only $14.5 Billion was actually ordered (link), so the life is worth less that $14.5 Billion, not $110 Billion - but we are quibbling.