Wednesday, March 16, 2011

The Lessons of Lybia

So Khadafi (Gadhafi) is going to crush the rebellion.  What are the obvious take-aways and the less obvious take aways here?
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1) If you are going to fight back - be brutal and quick.   Bahrain has already learned this and has brought in troops from Saudi Arabia.  Now truthfully, this is an old lesson that people might have learned from China.
2) The United States is over-stretched right now.  Between Afghanistan (150,000 troops) and Iraq (still 30 - 50,000 troops) we can't easily commit troops.  When we are overstretched, it is the second best time to ignore us.
3) A disaster moves the US focus.  This Japan tragedy could not have come at a better time for Khadafi, Yemen and Bahrain.  A disaster that moves US focus to a point where action is obviously helpful is the best time to do something we want to ignore.
4) No one moves alone, except the US (the one exception was the Balkans where the EU moved first).
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So the stars aligned to keep Khadafi (and others in power).  But the reality is that the world missed an opportunity to remove him and save lives.  His retribution will be swift and terrible.