It effects about 800,000 government employees - many who will probably get back pay later - and about 600,000 contractors who will not get back pay for the last 21 days.
It all started, as these things do, with a Trump about-face. A stumble by the Republicans, fully. In December, the President agreed to fund the government for a few months at current levels with no wall. This was to cover the government until the Democrats took over the House of Representatives.
That agreement passed the Senate 100 - 0 and went to the House of Representatives. But, in the 2 or so days between Senate and House votes, the conservative press complained loudly that there was no wall money. And, with the Republicans loosing control of the House of Representatives, this was the last chance to get wall money. The press in general, and Ann Coulter in particular, made fun of Trump's manliness and we were off to the races.
So the House of Representatives passed the funding bill, plus $5,700,000,000.00 ($ 5.7 B) directly to build Trump's wall. And then the left the city for good.
Since the bills didn't match, there was no bill to send to Trump to fund the government and it shut down. Note: the Senate didn't bass House bill because they had already passed what the President said he would sign, and there weren't enough votes (60) to pass the House version.
Sides Dig In as the House Changes Parties
Enter Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats who have now run the House of Representatives since Jan 3.
So negotiations have been going on to open the government. the House has now approved exactely the same bill the Senate did, but now the Republican leader of the Senate won't let the Senate re-vote on the bill they passed 100 - 0, because they President now doesn't like it.
Now you might think that the House and Senate have now passed the same law, and that is true, but technically they were in different Congressional Sessions (before and after Jan 3) and so that doesn't count.
And so we are here. The President says he will not sign a bill without his $5.7B wall money, And Nancy Pelosi says no. He couldn't get his Republican Congress to pass it, why would she? Let me also say that Nancy Pelosi is the right's biggest boggy-man. They have spent 6 years building her up as the San Francisco Liberal they hate, so giving in to her would be doubly hard.
Compromise is not impossible, but Trump himself has to agree
We've been on the road of negotiation before. Over a year ago at this point the Democrats and Republicans agreed in to pass Trump's wall money in return for a legal path to citizenship of the "Dreamers" (children brought to this country under the age of 10 by their parents over 10 years ago). A deal was cobbled together and after it was ready to go, Trump said no at the last minute.
This time Trump's "negotiator" and the Senate were close to an agreement this time along similar lines and then Trump said no.
Clearly Turmp's parents never read him "The Boy that Cried Wolf" bedtime story.
So a huge problem now is... Trump's erratic decision making / lies / posturing. The Democrats want an agreement in writing, so do many Republicans quietly. No one wants to get too far in front and then have Trump pull out of the deal - as he has on every single deal regarding the budget. For Republicans, they can be painted as "soft on Immigration" and for the Democrats, they can be painted as "giving into Trump" - and still be screwed without a deal.
Trump has continued to conducted these meetings like a private business where the work is done and now he doesn't want to pay contractors their full price. This isn't an indictment of Trump, that is the way he works and he says himself in Art of the Deal. In the last meeting, when Democrats didn't immediately give in, he slammed his hands down and walked out. That is directly from his book.
What Makes This Harder 1
Trump and his administration don't really know what the government does. Seriously. After the shut-down started he was shocked the museums weren't open and Air Traffic Controllers were not being paid. He didn't understand the IRS wouldn't be handing out Tax Refunds and the Department Agriculture couldn't process the Farmer's emergency loans. He didn't know food stamps to old people would stop.
Conservatives and the Conservative Press have said the government doesn't do any good for so long that they tend to believe it. They don't remember what good it does.
And, since President Trump is addicted to Fox News, his view of what is happening in the world is filtered through that lens. And that news station has been adamant that the shut-down isn't that bad.
What Makes This Significantly Harder 2
Everyone has made this "the hill to die on".
Trump needs a border wall to please his base for reelection. He didn't get it with a Republican government, so now he needs at least a major fight for the wall to make him look tough.
The Democrats dominated the 2018 mid-terms (our bi-elections) and won another 40 House seats (they lost a net of 2 Senate seats even though they won a lot more votes - don't ask). The election was fought very much over the wall and the "threat" from Mexico. All those new House members don't want to vote for the very thing their voters voted against.
You would think public pressure would force changes. Well, no.
The Democrats have the majority of the country on their side. AND any message to "Democrats" is defuse and not focused like it is on the President.
Trump won't be persuaded because Trump is playing to a small but very committed base of voters (about 38% of voters) and they don't care about anyone else. This is the problem that Trump has never tried to bring America along with him. Their entire thought process can be summed up in a quote "He's not hurting the people he needs to be hurting."* As if he is suppose to be hurting their enemies, not President for all.
What about that White House Speech
The White House had a rare prime time - all stations broadcast speech to try to change people's minds. If anything, it backfired. Presidents have addressed Americans a lot. FDR, George W Bush, Barack Obama, the list goes on. But every other time it was to bring Americans together, steel our resolution or to calm us down after an attack. This was the first ever Presidential Prime Time speech where a President has tried to scare Americans into a defensive fetal position.
This was the first ever time the President used a Prime Time Speech in a political fit of pique.
The speech was so full of lies that no one cared.
And the "response" was so deadly dull it didn't move anyone either. But how to you respond to lies and scare tactics.
How Does This End?
Well, the obvious ending a few days ago was that Trump would declare a "National Emergency" to build his wall. He would save face and a budget without funding could pass. The "National Emergency" would be tied up in court for a while, so he would have a campaign issue and Democrats would have stopped him.
But then Republicans thought about it and freaked out. Instead of being tied up in court, what if the courts agreed? Over the short term, great. Over the long term, whoopsie-fuck. If Trump could do that over the border (an obvious non-Emergency) then a Democratic President later could do it over Climate Change and then the shit hits the fan. So we are back at stalemate.
So now what? I think the air safety issue is the one that finally breaks through. But I could be wrong.
*footnote to prove that horrible comment in context
