I don’t know if you all know, or remember or care, but this
year was the 100th anniversary of World War I. At the time it was called variously The Great War,
or the War to End all Wars.
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It was not, of course.
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And everyone has "learned" the lessons from that war, but the
lessons are, I think, being interrupted incorrectly. Here is what I mean.
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The generally accepted consensus (from which
lessons are “learned”) is that a system of alliances between the European
Powers (then the Great Powers) forced war in a domino effect style upon the
continent.
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Nation states, with a infrastructure were fairly new at the
time. Russia, Austria/Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden, Romania,
Serbia, Prussia had recently been (or still were) nations run by a King, Duke,
Prince, etc. Before World War 1, the
monarchs could usually hammer things out.
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So it seems easy to say that when Russia invaded and
absorbed Crimea this year (a very similar thing that the Serbian was trying to
do in Bosnia before WWI) and there was no war - ta da - Nation States learned that nation states didn’t
plunge headlong into war.
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In fact, I would argue it is not that nation states got smarter,
but instead they are no longer free to act. The
nation state is now fully constrained by the commercial interests which are
both broader and less easy to track than "self-interests" countries.
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Germany did not “restrain” itself as a country when Russia
invaded Crimea. The heads of industry
(with an ex-chancellor as their spokesman) immediately rushed to tell the
Russia oligarchs that Germany would still do business with them. Similarly London and American Bankers lead
the fight against even meaningful sanctions.
Ultimately the United States, with minimal investments, did produce
stronger sanctions.
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But Scott, I hear you ask, isn’t the fact that Russia
invaded Crimean proof the nation state is still powerful? No.
Russia as run by Vladimir Putin is a cross between a cleptocroacy and a
plutocracy. (a gang of thieves or a gang of rich industrialists).
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| http://www.dw.de/german-firms-fear-spiraling-sanctions-in-ukraine-russia/a-17509325 |
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And outside of Crimean, the nation state fares even
worse. Countries are nearly powerless in
the face of non-nation state pressure.
Israel and Gaza. The Ukraine
against Russian infiltrators. The grow
of ISIS / ISIL in Iraq proceeded quickly, until they tried to take on a
role as a nation state. Even now, the
Untied States is rather befuddled on how to manage the threats and beheadings.
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As an aside, the only way to deal with ISIL of course, is to drop a massive bomb or small nuke
on a headquarters city and say, “You fuck
with us again and more are coming.”
A nation state can’t do that, but if they beheaded a Fox News guy and
Murdoch had a little nuke, he’ld do it. Would that fix the world of ISIL? No.
But ISIL wouldn’t go after Fox News anymore.
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Why are we, The United States, pissing about in Iraq? Why is Israel pissing about in Gaza? Because there is a level of reciprocity we as
civilized people try to maintain (and Israel can’t nuke what is essentially
it’s own territory). The nation state is constrained in a way unattached terrorists are not. When AlQueda was shielded by the Afghanistan government, the government was easy to dislodge. The actor, much less so.
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Don’t’ get me wrong, I don’t want to kill the people of
ISIL. But I don’t think they really
understand anything but a big – don’t screw with us moment. They are joyriding in US tanks like a coke’d
up 6 year old at a go-cart track Sure.... nuke a
mountaintop first if you want to give the civilians time to get out.
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But we can’t do that.
Because the age of the Nation State is over.
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| http://www.nbcnews.com/id/7119752/#.U_YdBrxdVXI. |
PS - The example is Crimea and Germany is ONLY an example. Our own Vice President Dick Chenney, when CEO of Haliburton worked around sanctions to supply Iran. It is, if anything, probably a stronger player in the United States.