Monday, June 08, 2015

Amazing International News

There is some amazing international news, if it sticks.
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Turkey, an ancient land but relatively new democracy, has been feeling it's way out of semi-military rule for the last two decades.  The military didn't used to rule, per say, but quite often removed governments it didn't like.
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Then Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected along with his party, which was more Islam accepting than previously.  Since the end of WWI, the Turkish government has been devoutly secular.  Erdogan's changes included allowing headscarves in public and some other changes to allow Islam a more public voice (although nothing like most of the middle east).  He also pushed back against the military intervention.  He also steered Turkey towards a larger diplomatic role in the middle east, more aligned with Turkey's own history.  And granting a democratic Muslim country a diplomatic seat at the world table is a win win for everyone! All this was great.
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But then, Erdogan last too long.  Most any head of government reaches a milestone at around 10 years in power.  They begin to think the person (them) is more critical than the country.  It isn't a hard and fast rule, but holds up surprisingly well.  Russia's Putin, Singapore's Lee and Argentina's Peron, China's Mao, the list goes on.
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Erdogan looked to follow that.  His has harassed or shut down most of the press that doesn't support him, including television.  He has implied to his supporters that people voting against him are anti-muslim.  He has muzzled some of the courts.  He has, generally, done most of what he can do legally and semi-legally.
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He was termed out as Prime Minister, but then elected to be President. President, in many countries, is a mainly ceremonial function.*  The Head of the Government is the Prime Minister.  Well, Erdogan called an election with the stated intent of rewriting the constitution to give the President many more powers.  He needed to increase his majority from a large majority to a 2/3's majority in order to do this.
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Instead, wow!
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His party lost the majority!  The Kurdish party for the first time topped 10% threshold to get into government.  Note: This is much to Erdogan's credit, for he has moved the very long lasting war with the Kurds from a hot civil war into a political arena. The secular parties also gained a lot of ground.  Like I said, this is all great.
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The only question now is will Erdogan let this situation stand?  There are essentially two ways to mess this up.  Illegally, he could ignore some results and say they did get a majority.  He has already seemed to rule that out.  Also, illegally, he could someone implement the constitutional changes without parliament, although that would be very bad.  Finally, and legally, his party could block building a coalition government in order to force new elections in 45 days and he could hope he does better. (Okay that is 3 ways, not 2 but I meant 2 as in legally and illegally - so I am not sure if I want to say 2 or 3 here.  Maybe "some ways" :-).
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All in all, this was a great result and hopefully puts Turkey on the path to a more robust democracy.  It could all still go south, but the fact they announced the results and are living with them is a big hurdle.  Good for them.
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*In Parliamentary systems the "President" often acts more as a surrogate Monarch than a US style President.  They can be the face of the country, approve coalitions, etc - but they don't particularly participate in the details of government.