Thursday, October 26, 2017

How is the "Deal Maker" Doing in Foreign Policy?

He was elected, many non-racists say, to bring his deal making capabilities and business acumen to the White House.  So, how is he doing?

I would argue, badly; but let us look at where he is.

Business Deal wise...

Candidate Trump promised to tear up the Trans-Pacific Partnership and he did that.  That is a political good, in that he followed up with his promise. Me, personally, I think the TPP would have done a good job of both protecting our intellectual property (where it gets stolen too much today) and would have helped integrate Asia into our soft-power sphere - but I wasn't running for President and he was. Candidate Trump (and a rather craven Hillary Clinton) both trashed the TPP for probably costing jobs. We won't ever knwo. What pulling out of the TTP does do, objectively, is states that our economic policy is now subject to the whims of our political system and we are not to be trusted.

President Trump's policy towards NAFTA shows the same disdain for international economic treaties. He opened negotiations, but has stated so many US only goals, that he is not seen as seriously looking at re-negotiating, but at leaving NAFTA. He probably will be held in the treaty because America workers and companies will be really hurt if he pulls out. The lesson here is, again, our economic policy is subject to the whims of our political system. The only question is if the voices of business and workers that benefit from NAFTA are heard.

The President's recent tariffs on Canadian / British aircraft say US companies will be protected. If Bombardier actually adds another manufacturing line in the United States, this tariff will have been successful in creating some more jobs here (but, Boeing would say at the expense of jobs in Seattle / the South).

So, he is following up on his promises to destroy, but has yet to make any positive "deals".

His Political Deal side looks worse...

His open overtures to buy influence with Saudi Arabia and Israel have led to boycott of Qatar, home to our military bases - and opened up Iraq and the Gulf to greater Iranian influence.

His insistence on denying the Iranian military deal has destroyed our international credibility to a great extent.

His Iranian posturing has meant there is very little to zero non-military options for North Korea. Despite his words and threats North Korea has tested more nuclear weapons and better missiles that ever in history.

His withdrawal from the Paris accords followed up on a campaign promise. The actual effect might be limited, vis-a-vi Carbon Emissions, as states and cities pick up the slack. But politically, the US has lost influence, much of it to China.

His dithering on NATO - I hate them / I love them / I hate them / they owe us money / they are freeloaders - has reduced our influence in many organizations. The President is unaware of how foreign policy in general, and NATO in particular, work. That never builds trust.

So, it seems to me, he has squandered the United States reputation, for no benefit. He has told the world that it is America First, but hasn't explained to anyone how this new policy benefits us. It seems more a child flipping off passers-by than a policy.