Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Big Day in Just Over a Week


So next Thursday is the day Scotland votes for or against independence.  Although Americans tend to ignore foreign affairs, let me explain why this might actually portend a MASSIVE change the United States.

Scotland is trying to leave the “United Kingdom” and yet maintain membership in two key clubs. 

First, Scotland would like to be granted immediate membership in the European Union.  There will be a lot of whinging about this, because it would be a bad precedent for Spain (where Basque and Catalan both want to leave) and Italy (where the North and South each feel the itch to hightail it out every now and then).  However, since Scotland would be a benefit to the EU, and is already larger (physically and economically) than many members, they will come up with something to keep them in.

Second, Scotland wants to keep the British Pound (it’s not called the English Pound).  That is both easier and harder.  Easier, because they can use whatever they want (Ecuador and Panama both use the US Dollar).  Keeping the Pound is easy.  Harder because not have a voice in your currency sucks.  It probably means the movement of most banking to London where the government would stay the ultimate backstop for the currency.  Imagine a 2008 type banking crash.  The United States bailed out American Banks – would we have bailed out Ecuadorian banks?


Either way, something will be worked out on both these fronts, IF Scotland goes it alone.

Now let’s look at the impact in the United States.  Huge.  If Scotland can escape, the idea will go, then why not the South (or Texas)?  Sure, the civil war happened once, but I wouldn’t fight to keep the South in the Country.  Let them go.

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“But Scott,” you explain, “this isn’t new.  Quebec voted, Czech and Slovakia spilt.  Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia broke up.  Why is this different?”
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Ah.. because Americans understand Scotland and England are like states (they aren’t but reality is so much less important that image).  
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Americans didn’t care Quebec wanted to leave Canada.  It was the French, and we Americans know the French are weird.  

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Ask an American about the Czechoslovakia spilt and over 80% will think it is the new desert from 31 Flavors.  And most will think  Slovenia and Serbia are trick questions.  You could as easily ask about Slobia and Freedonia.
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No.  If Scotland can go alone, many states will say their GNP would be greater than Scotland’s (in order, California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey. Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan, Massachusetts, Washington and Minnesota) why can’t they go it alone.
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Now it is easy for me to say, go safely.  But not just me, I think a lot of people in our massively polarized country would give the heave ho to half (or 2/3s) of the country.

So yeah, big day next Thursday.