Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Why Immigration is Critical to US Strength and Ecnomic Power

Arguing against immigration into the US is a losing battle.  One might want to argue about who we are letting it or our process of assimilation, but arguing against immigration is arguing to reduce US economic and military power.
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European Population Growth Rate.
You see, Europe heritage population growth is negative - both in the Untied states and throughout Europe itself.  And European heritage population (i.e. "white") is the current majority of the US population.  European heritage people in all countries simply are not having enough babies to replace themselves.  The same is true in Japan, and parts of highly developed Asia.
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There are lots of reasons for this, including some we don't fully understand.  But the result is, worst case, a decline of population which brings unique costs to a country, or (best case) a demographic issue with too many old people to take care of and not enough young people to pay for their social security / pensions / healthcare etc...
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This is already a problem in some countries of Eastern Europe and Russia, where a crashing birthrate combined with migration of the younger, more mobile population to hollow out a country.  In nearly all of these areas, the growth rate is climbing or leveling off, but now at much reduced levels.
After declining by almost 20 Million People through 2010, Russian population is now slowly growing.
In Europe as a whole the population map doesn't look much better. (see top map)
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But if you look at the Unites States, our population growth map and age distribution looks healthy to support our country in the current manner. Why?
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The difference is immigration.  Europe doesn't encourage immigration (they would like more Europeans, but that pool is shrinking, not growing).  The United States on the other hand continues to grow by immigration.

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To maintain this growth, however, the racial demographics will change.
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Can we assimilate Latin Americans?  Of course.  We asked the same questions in the past of other groups we looked askance at; Irish, Italians, Catholics of all strips (we called them Papists), Jews later Greeks and Slavs.  But America - unlike pretty much every country in Europe - defines citizenship by choice.  These people chose to become Americans, and they become invested in the country quickly.
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We actually need immigrants to continue to be an economic and military power. If we limit immigration, we will fall into a declining and aging population trap.  And as we have seen in areas like Detroit or entire countries, like Russia, that isn't easy to recover from.
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So we have three choices:
1) Embrace and assimilate our newest Americans.
2) Convince European Heritage woman to have more babies, NOW *.
3) Embrace a smaller power in the world, reduce our global footprint and slowly pull back.
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* This would require a pretty wholesale change to our society.  In countries like Iceland and Singapore, women are given yearly funds ("bonuses") for extra children, free child care, 6 - 18 months paid off and other incentives.  I don't think we are ready to adopt these, fairly socialist, policies.  Furthermore, it isn't proven to work.